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+---
+
+# regret minimization
+
+the 80-year-old self test. project yourself to the end of your life and ask: "will i regret not doing this?"
+
+## the framework
+
+Bezos used this when deciding to leave a hedge fund job to start Amazon. at 30, he imagined himself at 80 and asked whether he'd regret not trying. the answer was obvious — he'd regret the inaction far more than a failed attempt.
+
+the core move: reframe the decision from "what's the safe choice?" to "what will i regret not trying?"
+
+## when this works well
+
+- big life decisions where the downside is bounded but the upside is unbounded
+- decisions where fear of failure is the main thing holding you back
+- situations where the "safe" path has its own hidden risks — like never learning what could have been
+
+this connects to [[confidence]] — a lot of the time, the thing stopping me isn't a rational assessment of risk. it's [[impostor-syndrome]] whispering that i'm not ready, not good enough, not the kind of person who does that thing.
+
+## when this breaks down
+
+- **recency bias** — you imagine future regret based on what excites you *now*, but your values will shift. the 80-year-old you might care about things current-you doesn't.
+- **survivorship bias** — Bezos's story worked out. plenty of people left good jobs for startups and regret it. the framework doesn't account for the actual probability of success.
+- **overweighting action regret** — research shows people regret inaction more than action in the long run, which means this framework is biased toward "go for it." that's sometimes right, but not always.
+
+## my version
+
+i use a lighter version: "if i don't do this, will it bother me in 5 years?" not 80 years — that's too abstract. 5 years is concrete enough to feel real. if the answer is yes, the bar for doing it drops significantly.
+
+the key: this is a filter for big [[reversible-vs-irreversible]] type 1 decisions. for type 2 decisions, just try it — you don't need to invoke your future self.
+
+## the trap
+
+regret minimization can become a justification engine. "i'd regret not doing X" can be used to rationalize anything that feels exciting in the moment. the check: would you still want this if nobody knew about it? if the regret is about missing a status marker, that's [[fomo-trap]], not genuine regret minimization.
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