Teaching / Learning Superforecasting

Category: Superforcasting

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1. Reference Class Comparison

1. Strike the right balance between inside and outside fews
2. Start with the outside view first, update with inside views
3. Triage
   1. Focus your attention on the questions where your efforts have a good chance of making progress. Not on the intractable predictions, and not on the trivial predictions.
4. Decomposition
   1. (Break seemingly intractable problems into tractable sub-problems)
5. Be nuanced about how exactly much new information should affect your forecast
6. Look for the clashing causal forces at work in each problem
   1. Decompose to the causal level
   2. Re-represent the problem
7. Be uncertain in a nuanced way.
   1. “Strive to distinguish as many degrees of doubt as the problem permits but no more.”
8. Balancing under- and overconfidence
9. Balancing prudence and decisiveness
10. Look for the errors
    1. Beware of hindsight bias.
    2. List all major cognitive biases here
11. Balance Errors
12. Predicting in teams.

Source: Original Google Doc